Monte Carlo Strategy Simulator

Free Monte Carlo strategy simulator calculator. Works with any strategy parameters. AUD accounts supported. Client-side, no signup.

The Monte Carlo simulator treats your strategy's win-rate and average risk/reward as probabilities. It then runs hundreds or thousands of independent simulations, each one drawing random trade outcomes weighted by your win-rate, and tracking the resulting equity curve and maximum drawdown along the way. The result is a distribution of possible outcomes that shows you the full range of what could happen — not just the single "expected" number.

For each of K simulations, draw N random outcomes weighted by win-rate; track equity curve and max drawdown

The key insight is that even a profitable strategy can have losing sequences. By running many simulations, you see how often your strategy hits a drawdown that exceeds your comfort zone, and what percentile your expected return actually falls in. The simulator uses pure probability math — no market data, no spread assumptions — so the results are a clean statistical picture of your strategy's risk profile.

Example: AUD/USD strategy

• Win rate: 0.50
• Average win (R multiple): 1.8
• Average loss (R multiple): 1.0
• Risk per trade: 1.0%
• Number of trades: 250
• Simulations: 1,000

We run 1,000 independent simulations of 250 trades each, drawing each trade outcome randomly based on the 50% win-rate. For each simulation, we track the equity curve and final account balance.

Result: Median equity +18.4% after 250 trades; 5th percentile -7%; 95th percentile +52%

This means 90% of the time, your account ends up somewhere between -7% and +52% after 250 trades. The median outcome (+18.4%) is close to the theoretical expectancy, but the wide range shows the real risk of a losing streak early on.

• Low trade count (< 30): With fewer trades, the distribution becomes much wider and less reliable. The simulator still works mathematically, but the confidence intervals are very broad.
• Win rate near 0 or 1: Extremely high or low win rates create skewed distributions. The simulator handles this correctly, but the median and percentiles become less intuitive.
• Risk per trade > 2%: Higher risk amplifies both upside and downside. The 5th percentile can become catastrophic (> -50%) even with a positive expectancy strategy.
• Fractional R multiples: The simulator accepts any positive R multiple values. Very small average win R (< 1.0) combined with low win-rate produces near-certain negative outcomes.

• Risk of Ruin Calculator — calculates the probability your account hits zero given your strategy parameters.
• Drawdown Calculator — estimates the expected maximum drawdown and recovery time for your strategy.
• Compound Calculator — shows how your account grows over time with consistent returns.

• Expectancy — the average R multiple per trade (win rate × average win R) — (loss rate × average loss R). Positive expectancy means the strategy is profitable over many trades.
• Win rate — the percentage of trades that close in profit. Not the same as profitability — a low win-rate strategy can still have positive expectancy.
• Drawdown — the peak-to-trough decline in your account equity during a trading period, expressed as a percentage.